change logic

services/forecast_service.go

 package services
 
 import (
+	"fmt"
 	"math"
+	"sort"
 	"time"
 
 	"github.com/montanaflynn/stats"
@@ -94,8 +96,8 @@ func CalculateStages(ctx common.DawnCtx, request models.StageRequest) map[string
 		}
 
 		normal, _ := stats.Mean(accs2)
-		min, _ := stats.PercentileNearestRank(accs2, 5)
-		max, _ := stats.PercentileNearestRank(accs2, 95)
+		min, _ := stats.PercentileNearestRank(accs2, 2.5)
+		max, _ := stats.PercentileNearestRank(accs2, 97.5)
 
 		accNormal = normal
 		acc5thNormal = min
@@ -152,6 +154,22 @@ func CalculateStages(ctx common.DawnCtx, request models.StageRequest) map[string
 
 }
 
+func AvgDiff(data []int) float64 {
+	sort.Ints(data)
+	sum := 0.0
+	c := 0
+	for i := 0; i < len(data)-1; i++ {
+		diff := math.Abs(float64(data[i] - data[i+1]))
+		sum += diff
+		c += 1
+	}
+	return sum / float64(c)
+}
+func Min(data []int) int {
+	sort.Ints(data)
+	return data[0]
+}
+
 func BinStageMatches(stageState map[string]models.StageStateInner, year int, start int, plantDate time.Time) map[string]models.Bins {
 	response := map[string]models.Bins{}
 	alpha := 1.0
@@ -161,24 +179,13 @@ func BinStageMatches(stageState map[string]models.StageStateInner, year int, sta
 	}
 
 	for state, stateVal := range stageState {
-		min := stateVal.Normal95thIdx
-		max := stateVal.Normal5thIdx
+		// min := stateVal.Normal95thIdx
+		min := Min(stateVal.Hists)
+		stepSize := int(math.Ceil(AvgDiff(stateVal.Hists)) + 1) // add 1 to increase range (cheating a little) and for uncertainty
+		max := min + int(stepSize)*5
 		rangeSize := max - min
-		if rangeSize%5 != 0 {
-			target := math.Ceil(float64(rangeSize)/5) * 5
-			dist := math.Abs((target - float64(rangeSize)))
-			move := math.Ceil(dist / 2)
-			max += int(move)
-			min -= int(move)
-			rangeSize = max - min
-			if rangeSize%5 != 0 {
-				min -= 1
-			}
-			rangeSize = max - min
-		}
 		arr := []float64{}
 		idxs := []int{}
-		stepSize := rangeSize / 5
 		base := min
 		total := 0
 		for i := 0; i < 5; i++ {
@@ -209,11 +216,74 @@ func BinStageMatches(stageState map[string]models.StageStateInner, year int, sta
 		inner.NormalMax = plantDate.AddDate(0, 0, max-start)
 		inner.NormalMean = plantDate.AddDate(0, 0, stateVal.NormalMeanIdx-start)
 		inner.Count = total
+		fmt.Println(state, rangeSize, stepSize, total)
 		response[state] = inner
 	}
 	return response
 }
 
+// func BinStageMatches(stageState map[string]models.StageStateInner, year int, start int, plantDate time.Time) map[string]models.Bins {
+// 	response := map[string]models.Bins{}
+// 	alpha := 1.0
+// 	add := 0
+// 	if year%4 == 0 && year%100 != 0 || year%400 == 0 {
+// 		add -= 1
+// 	}
+
+// 	for state, stateVal := range stageState {
+// 		min := stateVal.Normal95thIdx
+// 		max := stateVal.Normal5thIdx
+// 		rangeSize := max - min
+// 		if rangeSize%5 != 0 {
+// 			target := math.Ceil(float64(rangeSize)/5) * 5
+// 			dist := math.Abs((target - float64(rangeSize)))
+// 			move := math.Ceil(dist / 2)
+// 			max += int(move)
+// 			min -= int(move)
+// 			rangeSize = max - min
+// 			if rangeSize%5 != 0 {
+// 				min -= 1
+// 			}
+// 			rangeSize = max - min
+// 		}
+// 		arr := []float64{}
+// 		idxs := []int{}
+// 		stepSize := rangeSize / 5
+// 		base := min
+// 		total := 0
+// 		for i := 0; i < 5; i++ {
+// 			count := 0.0
+// 			for _, h := range stateVal.Hists {
+// 				if base <= h && h < base+stepSize {
+// 					count += 1
+// 					total += 1
+// 				}
+// 			}
+// 			idxs = append(idxs, base)
+// 			arr = append(arr, count)
+// 			base += stepSize
+// 		}
+// 		inner := models.Bins{}
+// 		inner.Bins = []models.Bin{}
+// 		for i := 0; i < 5; i++ {
+// 			idx := idxs[i] + add
+// 			date := plantDate.AddDate(0, 0, idx-start)
+// 			val := arr[i]
+// 			smoothedVal := (val + alpha) / (float64(total) + 5*alpha) // modified version of laplace smoothing to remove 0%
+// 			inner.Bins = append(inner.Bins, models.Bin{
+// 				Date:  date,
+// 				Value: smoothedVal,
+// 			})
+// 		}
+// 		inner.NormalMin = plantDate.AddDate(0, 0, min-start)
+// 		inner.NormalMax = plantDate.AddDate(0, 0, max-start)
+// 		inner.NormalMean = plantDate.AddDate(0, 0, stateVal.NormalMeanIdx-start)
+// 		inner.Count = total
+// 		response[state] = inner
+// 	}
+// 	return response
+// }
+
 func ForecastFirstLastFreeze(ctx common.DawnCtx, request models.FreezingForecastRequest) models.FreezingForecastResponse {
 	lastFreezeIdx := 0
 	firstFreezeIdx := 0